Probability theory and its models

This paper argues for the status of formal probability theory as a mathematical, rather than a scientific, theory. David Freedman and Philip Stark's concept of model based probabilities is examined and is used as a bridge between the formal theory and applications.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/193940307000000347 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Evaluating Mobile Device Cleaning Policies in the NHS

Introduction The use of mobile devices within healthcare settings by staff, patients and visitors is widespread and growing. DoH guidance states that patients should be allowed the widest possible use of mobile phones. For staff mobile devices have become an essential aspect of their day-to-day professional and personal lives. There is, however, clear evidence that phones/tablets can be contaminated with pathogens, which may survive for prolonged periods before being transferred onto hands or other surfaces.   Methods A FoI request for “all current policies or guidelines that make reference to the use and management of mobile phones and tablet devices in the healthcare environment, by staff, service users, and visitors – this applies to both personal and institutionally-owned devices”, was sent to NHS institutions across England, Scotland and Wales with a response rate of 96% (n=252).   Results 22% of organisations had no policy in place, with ≈11% stating that this would be considered policy reviews. Organisations that acknowledged the issue responded that staff were informed of disinfection procedures: e.g. ‘the normal cleaning schedule’ or the use of universal sanitizing/detergent wipes. Many organisations referred to their Cleaning and Decontamination policy, however none of these explicitly mentioned mobile devices. Instead, the general advice for electrical devices was to follow manufacturer’s instructions, as using any other process might invalidate warranties. Where specific cleaning policies were in place they advocated the use of ‘general purpose/universal detergent wipes’ without any technical justification. Multiple organisations suggested that existing hand decontamination procedures were sufficient to address this issue.   Discussion There is no consistency in infection control advice regarding the potential risks posed by the use of mobile devices. Regular cleaning may be a solution, but there is little evidence evaluating the available methods. The literature in this field calls for clear evidence-based guidelines for cleaning and disinfecting mobile devices

Draft Genome Sequence of an Alkaliphilic Exiguobacterium sp Strain HUD, Isolated from a Polymicrobial Consortia

An alkaliphilic microorganism from the genus Exiguobacterium, Exiguobacterium sp. strain HUD was isolated from a fermentative, methanogenic polymicrobial microcosm operating at pH 10. The draft genome shows the presence of genes encoding for the metabolism of a range of carbohydrates under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions

Draft Genome Sequences of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Strain PS3 and Citrobacter freundii Strain SA79 Obtained from a Wound DressingAssociated Biofilm

Two isolates, one from the genus Pseudomonas and the second from Citrobacter, were isolated from a wound dressing-associated biofilm. Following whole-genome sequencing, the two isolates presented genes encoding for resistance to antibiotics and those involved in exopolysaccharide productio

Draft Genome Sequence of the Biofilm-Forming Stenotrophomonas maltophilia Strain 53

A clinical strain of Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (designated strain 53) was obtained, and a whole-genome sequence was generated. The subsequent draft whole-genome sequence demonstrated the presence of a number of genes encoding for proteins involved in resistance to a number of antimicrobial therapie

Microbial Effects on Repository Performance

This report presents a critical review of the international literature on microbial effects in and around a deep geological repository for higher activity wastes. It is aimed at those who are familiar with the nuclear industry and radioactive waste disposal, but who are not experts in microbiology; they may have a limited knowledge of how microbiology may be integrated into and impact upon radioactive waste disposal safety cases and associated performance assessments (PA)

Consumption Benefits and Gambling: Evidence From the NCAA Basketball Betting Market

The determinants of the total number of bets placed on games from three on-line sports books are analyzed for the 2008‐9 NCAA basketball season. Betting volume depends on television coverage, temporal factors, the quality of the teams, and the expected closeness of the contest. Our results support the notion that consumption benefits motivate gambling rather than financial gain. Preferences of bettors appear similar to those of sports fans, suggesting that modeling gamblers as wealth‐maximizing investors may not be appropriate, and supports the predictions of the model of gambling developed by Conlisk (1993).gambling; sports betting; bet volume; consumption value

Teorías de causación y explicación : ¿necesariamente verdaderas o dominio-específicas?

En Humphreys [2000] argumenté que dado que están basadas en cantidades conservadas, las últimas teorías de la causación y la explicación de Salmon requieren un compromiso con una forma de fisicalismo bastante radical, haciendo la teoría difícil de aplicar a fenómenos sociales, económicos y psicológicos. Este compromiso parecería estrechar considerablemente el alcance de las teorías a menos que una vasta reducción de las ciencias sociales y psicológicas a la física pueda ser alcanzada. En el presente trabajo argumento que el contenido empírico inherente a las teorías de Salmon, aunque presente todavía, es menos problemático de lo que pensé en [2000] y esto hace que problemas filosóficos involucrados en su evaluación sean menos severos de lo que podrían parecer. Es más, el grado de compromiso con el fisicalismo requerido por las teorías más maduras de Salmon es mínimo. La combinación de realismo y empirismo en las teorías de Salmon requiere menos cambios en los métodos filosóficos de lo que podría esperarse.In Humphreys [2000], I argued that as they are based on conserved quantities, Salmon's latest theories of causation and explanation require a commitment with a quite radical form of»physicalism, making the theory difficult to apply to social, economic and psychological phenomena. This commitment would seem to curtail the scope of the theories considerably unless a vast reduction in the social sciences and psychological to physics can be achieved. In the present study, I argue that the empirical content inherent in Salmon's theories, though still present, is less problematic than what I thought in [2000]. This, in turn, makes the philosophical problems involved in evaluating it less severe than what they might seem. What is more, the degree of commitment to physicalism required by Salmon's more mature theories is minimal. The combination of realism and empiricism in Salmon's theories requires fewer changes in philosophical methods than what might be expected

CEO Turnover: More Evidence on the Role of Performance Expectations

Previous research on CEO turnover indicates that a number of factors, including age, firm performance, and expected firm performance affect CEO turnover. Measurement of expected performance in these studies is typically based on investment analysts’ forecasts of earnings; these expectations potentially suffer from a number of problems, including the tendency for CEOs to “manage” analysts’ expectations. We examine the relationship between performance expectations and CEO turnover using data from NCAA Division I-A college football using a market-determined measure of expected performance, winning percentage against point spreads; this expected performance measure does not suffer from many of the problems that plague analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find that performance expectations, actual expectations, and tenure affect CEO turnover in NCAA Division I-A college football, based on performance data from 102 Division I-A football programs over the period 1980-2004.CEO turnover; performance expectations; betting markets